January will quite simply define Wellington Phoenix's season.
You can lock Sydney, Melbourne and Gold Coast into the playoffs and leave them to scrap for the Premiership and the advantage of the top two post-season spots. For the seven other teams, hope springs eternal, but Phoenix fans should look forward with expectation rather than hope as they contemplate five massive matches in the first month of the new decade.
The first two of those games - both at home - are utterly crucial. Six points are an absolute must against a Brisbane side which has wobbly residence for the moment in the top six, but which seems on the verge of implosion and a North Queensland outfit who have twice scored late to deny Phoenix victories, but which this time must be ruthlessly dispatched.
Over the same fortnight, fourth-placed Newcastle front Melbourne and Gold Coast and fifth-placed Perth play Sydney and Melbourne. If both emerge pointless from those two encounters and Phoenix can grab the maximum against Roar and Fury, they could find themselves comfortably fourth with five matches to play. Granted, visits to Perth, Melbourne and Gold Coast would still need to be negotiated, but the momentum gained from stringing wins together can't be under-estimated. Just ask the Jets.
After injury and suspension headaches in the past month, Ricki Herbert has a nicer selection dilemma this time, with every one of his squad likely to be available for the Brisbane clash. Most importantly, Chris Greenacre appears to be recovering well from the knee injury which has kept him on the sidelines for the last four matches. Despite Herbert's historical unwillingness to change a winning side, I think Greenacre has to come back into the starting eleven, if fit. He's the one player in the squad who can play as a genuine centre-forward and his ability to release others (most notably Paul Ifill) to play freer roles while he does the donkey-work up front can't be underestimated.
For me, there are five dead-set certainties in the Phoenix starting XI- Liam Reddy, Andrew Durante, Tony Lochhead, Paul Ifill and Chris Greenacre. But for his recent three-match suspension, Ben Sigmund would also be on that list, but in his absence, Durante and Jon McKain have done well and there's a strong case for retaining them in central defence. But Sigmund is....well, he's Sigmund, and his whole-hearted dedication and touch of "mongrel" present a compelling case for an instant return as the season reaches boiling point.
My preference would be for Siggy to come straight back in and for McKain to take over the defensive midfield role Manny Muscat filled against the Mariners. Even though Muscat did reasonably well, McKain just seems better suited there. By having a midfield anchor, both Tim Brown and Vince Lia were allowed the freedom to push forward and pose an attacking threat. Brown has been arriving in goalscoring positions all season but Lia has been less of a menace in the opposing penalty area. However, he was noticeably further advanced against the Mariners with guaranteed cover behind him. Regardless of who's tucked in behind them, Brown and Lia have formed a solid combination which shouldn't be broken.
There's a case for slotting Muscat back into his favoured right fullback position. However, Brisbane's Tommy Oar was the opponent Muscat quickly grew tired of being roasted by and used an elbow to stop as he embarked on another high-speed foray down Phoenix's right-hand side to earn his three-match ban. Herbert might decide that reacquainting Muscat with the same adversary so soon would be tempting fate. Troy Hearfield has done OK at right-back and certainly offers more going forward so he shades it for me.
That leaves just one position in the side for Leo Bertos and Adrian Caceres to fight over. Up until the Mariners game it seemed Caceres was at best an impact player who was better suited to cameos from the bench, but his 90-minute man-of-the match display on New Year's Eve makes him hard to leave out. Bertos would still get the nod for me by virtue of his greater consistency over the season and importance at set pieces. But Caceres certainly has a vital contribution to make in the remaining seven matches.
Further suspensions look likely to play a part before the regular season is over with Lia, Brown and Durante each just a yellow card away from suspension (two matches in Lia's case) and Lochhead, McKain, Ifill, Muscat, Bertos and Sigmund all on three yellows.
For now though, we may just get to see Phoenix's strongest XI run out against Brisbane.
Reddy-Hearfield-Durante-Sigmund-Lochhead-McKain-Brown-Lia-Bertos-Ifill-Greenacre.
That's a starting XI to inspire confidence as we enter the business end of the campaign.
