At this point they’re three points ahead of us, but they have to play us at home, and also finish with Japan. Between those games they play the desperate UAE who may still have a mathematical chance of third at that point.

In short, the Saudis are under pressure.

What’s more, they tend not to travel well. Hard to beat at home but fragile away – especially against the teams they fear.

And why shouldn’t they fear us?

We’ve not yet covered ourselves (much) in glory but neither have we lost. Australia have (potentially) a really good team – we just need to get all the building blocks in order.

So starting from the back: Ryan, Langerak, even Vuka. I’m happy with any of those.

The back is more problematic because it depends on Ange’s shape du jour. Will he stick with his latest three-at-the-back system, or will he revert (in a must win game) to the more tried and tested flat four?

If he goes with the three, then surely it’s Sainsbury, Wright and either Ryan McGowan or Degenek. (I would’ve liked to have seen Wilko picked, but…) There’s a teensy worry over Sainsbury’s lack of match time but that’s not what the Saudis will be thinking. They’ll be keenly aware he is an Inter Milan player (ish) and half of them will want his autograph.

Degenek could also be picked at right back but (assuming three at the back and two overlapping wingbacks) Ange will be considering Leckie (who has just told his new Berlin employers that he wants to become a wingback). I would far prefer Rhyan Grant. Come on Ange! You know you want pick him! Leckie to come on perhaps?

On the left side, it’s Behich, Brad Smith, Robbie Kruse…or Craig Goodwin? Ange will surely go with Smith, who was one of our best in the game against UAE, and if he does then maybe Robbie Kruse’s days are numbered. I’ve always believed in his talent but he’s never quite delivered in a Socceroos shirt. Wouldn’t mind seeing Goodwin get some minutes.

But what if it’s four at the back?

I doubt it will be – partly because Ange seems to have nailed his colours to the mast (and what sort of international coach would try to gain an advantage by doing something different from what he’s done in the past?), but also because Milligan is suspended. I think he would certainly have been one of the two screeners in a 4,2,3,1, but in his absence, Ange is more likely to rely just on Jedinak in a 3,2,1,3,1 system.

So, who will be the three attacking midfielders?

You’ve got Rogic, Mooy, Luongo, Irvine and Amini competing for three places. I have suggested for some time that Rogic has the ability to be used as a false nine, but if that were to happen I think it more likely to happen in a slightly more defensive line up. At home, where we have to win, I expect Ange to go for a standard striker – which means Rogic, Mooy and one other in the midfield. Surely Irvine on form, with maybe Mooy sitting a little deeper than the other two?

That leaves one up front. You’d expect Juric to get the nod, unless Ange wants to start with a bit more pace. Could that mean Maclaren to start? He’s definitely scored a lot more goals than Juric, if in the A-League rather than Switzerland. (Query on whether Swiss defenders are really that much better than A-League defenders…)

The other possibility is to go for the big gun from the off and start Timmy. I don’t think he’s played enough in the last month to start, so that probably means Juric or Maclaren, and Ange has form in opting for the Euro player in such situations. Mainly. MacLaren has goals and pace on his side (and he is now a Euro player himself).

That might mean the following:

Ryan/Langerak (can’t pick, but maybe Langerak on the flush of promotion)

Sainsbury, McGowan, Wright

Grant                                       Smith

                        Jedinak

            Mooy               Irvine

                        Rogic

                        MacLaren

I would love to see that side picked and reckon it has way too much at home for the Saudis.

If we do get a performance and manage to go second (if only on goal difference) it will put us in the box seat to qualify directly, even though we’ll have to get something out of the Japan away game to be sure (ish) of it.

And a good win over the Saudis would also set us up for a confident tilt at the Confederations Cup.

Go Socceroos!

 

Adrian’s latest book Political Football: Lawrie McKinna’s Dangerous Truth is in the shops right now or available through Booktopia. Adrian also wrote Mr Cleansheets.