Welcome to this month's betting blog, bought you with our chums from Sportingbet Australia. To clarify on any confusion caused from our inaugural entry, FourFourTwo Editor Trevor Treharne is crafting this blog for you. As a keen punter, this blog is my opportunity to share and start discussion on what might make a good little flutter this month in conjunction with our betting partners, Sportingbet Australia. With that cleared up, I'll press on with my advice for this month.
Bolt-on
Euro top trumps
Qualification for the 2012 European Championships in Poland and Ukraine are well underway and the groups have started to take shape. In Group A Germany have continued their impressive World Cup form with a series of dominate performances (four wins from four), the Netherlands have achieved the same feat in Group E as have Spain in Group I. Pricing for the nations to top their groups have already tightened severely as a result. Germany are $1.04, the Dutch $1.10 and Spain $1.02.
Looking for a multi of short-priced favourites could be the way to go here. But you'll need others to boost the value. Russia have looked brilliant in their early Group B games and are available at $1.33 to top that group, while the French are resurgent under new coach Laurent Blanc and sit at the summit of Group D after three wins from four games. You can grab France to stay at the top at $1.40.
Combining the safe treble of Germany, Netherlands and Spain with Russia and France creates a far more interesting price of $2.17 for all five to top their groups. That's doubling your money from some pretty safe international heavyweights. You can also mix and match with other nations you like the look of to top their group, like Italy at $1.35, England at 1.17 or Portugal at $1.70.
Chance it?
Victory march
While Melbourne looked poor in the first derby against Heart, they bounced back with a 3-0 win over champions Sydney and were unlucky to lose out against in-form Brisbane last weekend. They sit fifth on the A-League ladder at the time of writing, but have a lot in their favour when weighing up the likelihood of a run to the Grand Final.
Firstly, they have the return of two of their most influential players before Christmas - defender Matthew Kemp and star striker Archie Thompson. After long-term lay-offs, it might take them a while to hit their stride again, but that could be just in time for the finals in February and March. Victory are probably only a decent defender and striker short of being real challengers, so Kemp and Archie will fill that void.
Secondly, Victory have the experience to go all the way and no team has been more successful in the history of the A-League. They have an established spine of experience both on and off the pitch and when the big games roll round, they won't be overwhelmed. Sportingbet Australia have them at a generous $8.00 to take out the Grand Final. That price will plummet as their injured duo return and they hit form, so get on that price this month.
You never know!
Minnows rise
The English FA Cup winner presents a very interesting betting market this season. With the exception of Portsmouth in 2008, not since Everton in 1995 has anyone other than Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal or Chelsea taken out the famous trophy. That could well change this season.
The likes of Cardiff, West Ham, Millwall and Southampton have all made the final in that period too. So can a smaller side go one better this term?
Chelsea are short-priced favourites at $5.50, understandable for a team that has taken out the silverware for the last two years. The usual suspects follow the Londoners in the betting ranks, but further down the list is where the value is found.
Champions League competitors and eight time winners Tottenham are available at $12.00. While Aston Villa, who made last season's League Cup final are $15.00 and Tim Cahill's Everton, who made the final in 2008, are $17.00.
Feeling really lucky? Then other Premier League teams are around the 40s, while decent Championship side can't be completely ignored (as the aforementioned Millwall and Cardiff have proven in recent years), so high-flying QPR, Cardiff (both $126.00), Swansea ($151.00) and Watford ($201.00) are not inexcusable long shots.
Last month we gave you the vote on what you thought the best bet between our three options - Barcelona to beat Mallorca and Villarreal in La Liga, Tottenham to progress from Champions League Group A or Chelsea to beat Man City and Arsenal in EPL. With Sportingbet Australia putting up $50 on what you felt was the best bet and all winning going to charity.
A landslide 47 per cent of you backed the Spanish giants Barca as the best option. Unfortunately they could muster no better than a draw for their home game to Mallorca, so no luck for our charitable cause this month. However, better luck picking your favourite out of these three bets for the month...
