Blog: Who Do We Overtake?

EVERY game has two halves and it’s remarkable how often a football match becomes the clichéd “game of two halves”.

Phoenix’s 3-0 win over Newcastle was certainly that. They were disappointing in the first half, especially considering three points were absolutely crucial for them to remain in playoff contention.

The Jets had by far the better of the first period and but for Glen Moss, could have been two, three or even four goals up at the break.

Moss is an incredible shot-stopper. He occasionally flaps at crosses, his kicking isn’t always as precise as it could be and he doesn’t command his area as well as some ‘keepers, but when it comes to pure reflexes and stopping shots, there’s no-one better in this league.

The second half was a different story with greater urgency, more attacking endeavour and – thankfully – three goals.

Leo’s opener looked to come off a combination of his thigh, groin and stomach, but they all count.

Smeltz’s first was sublime and his penalty (which looked harsh to me) was clinically dispatched. Three points, job done, Phoenix still in play-off contention.

So now we start thinking about scenarios. Which of the four teams currently occupying the playoff spots could Phoenix potentially overhaul to make the top four?

Basic mathematics would suggest the easiest team to catch is the one closest to you, and that means Queensland, who sit just one point above Phoenix, albeit with a game in hand. However, their run-in is Central Coast (away), Adelaide (away), Sydney FC (home) and Perth (home).

Let’s just assume for a second that they lose the first two and win the second two of those matches, which would take them to 32 points. With the Phoenix currently on 25 and with a vastly inferior goal difference, that’d mean they’d have to win all three of their remaining matches to overhaul the Roar.

A more likely scenario is to overhaul the Mariners, who are currently three points clear of Phoenix, but with a much tougher run-in – they face Queensland (home), Melbourne (away) and Adelaide (home).

It’s possible they might lose all three of those games, meaning Phoenix would need just four points from its remaining three matches to go past them. However, if the Mariners, say, won one, drew one and lost one, it would take them to 32 points, meaning, again, Phoenix would need three wins from three to usurp them.

So, is that possible for Phoenix? To win all three remaining matches?

Sydney away next week looks the most straightforward. The Bling have been atrocious in the second half of the season, losing their last four games and winning just one of the last nine. Phoenix have beaten them 2-1 both times this season and should go to the SFS without fear.

Then it gets tricky.

As I’ve mentioned in previous blogs, Adelaide are our bogey team – five meetings for a solitary point and some hidings along the way. However, their clash with Phoenix on January 18 will be Adelaide’s fifth game in fifteen days.

Fatigue, injuries and reshuffled line-ups could all play a part, as could a large, raucous crowd at the Ring of Fire if the playoff flame is still burning.

Then, it’s to the patchwork quilt of the Telstra Dome for the last hurrah. The best possible scenario is for Melbourne to be safe in one of the top two spots by the time this match rolls around.

No side ever goes out to lose, but an opposition with one eye on the playoffs they’ve already qualified for would be a far less formidable opponent than one which needs a win to ensure first or second place.

Regardless of what happens from here, Phoenix have given their fans a January to look forward to. With so much football still to be played between teams with only a point or two between them, the eventual finishing shape of the A-League ladder is far from certain.

One thing that has been confirmed by the win over the Jets is that for the first time in the history of the A-League, a New Zealand team will not finish last.

The very fact that fifth would now be a disappointing finish just goes to show how much expectations in this part of the world have risen since the inception of Wellington Phoenix Football Club.