A little over a third of the way through the English Premier League season, and by now fantasy football managers have experienced the usual ups-and-downs of a season, but on the upside, it means we have lots of evidence on which to base our decision making. Both the game, and the football itself, have seen some pretty significant changes since last season, which the wily managers have quickly adapted to. Here’s a quick look at some of the things we’ve learnt so far:

Robin Van Persie wasn’t worth £14M

Asensio's Screamer Vs FC Barcelona
Asensio's Screamer Vs FC Barcelona
In one of Real Madrid's most outstanding performances at the Camp Nou, Los Blancos beat FC Barcelona 3-1 in the Spanish Supercup. Real were leading 2-1 after Cristiano Ronaldo's 80th minute goal, but just before the final whistle, we sealed the win with this beautiful Marco Asensio strike.
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Debates in FPL circles when the fantasy game first opened this year were pretty rampant around whether the previous season’s standout performer, RVP, was worth the whopping price tag that the game designers put on him at the outset. Those who decided he was worth it, had to pretty much build their teams around the Dutchman, while the rest of us felt slightly rich to spend in other areas, but had to live in fear of what he might do. Two goals in the opening game meant a lot of fortitude was needed to stick to a no-RVP policy, but those who did benefitted, with only one more goal coming in the following 5 weeks.

In mid-October, RVP began to show some consistency with a four game, goal-a-game run, but that has now been cut down courtesy of an injury which has meant he sat out GW12s very tasty home fixture to Cardiff and GW13s match up with Spurs. No doubt at some point during the season, we’ll all be scrambling to have the man in our teams, but at the moment nobody seems in too much of a rush to lose the likes of Aguero, Suarez, or even Rooney, to bring in last seasons top scorer (his 22% ownership obviously includes a big proportion of the ‘dead teams’ which part-time FPL fans create at gameweek 1 and then forget or lose interest in).

A look at the stats for strikers so far this season shows a relatively predictable trend. Those guys who are getting into the box, and firing off the most shots (whether on target or not), are leading the overall scoring.

Forwards

Penalty Box Touches (per game played)

Total Shots
(per game played)

Total FPL points
(per game played)

Sergio Aguero – MCY

117 (9.75)

48 (4)

100 (8.3)

Luis Suarez – LIV

93 (11.63)

45 (5.6)

75 (9.4)

Olivier Giroud – ARS

88 (6.76)

48 (3.7)

78 (6.0)

Wayne Rooney - MAN

57* (4.75)

39 (3.3)

90 (7.5)

Expensive midfielders are no longer no brainers*Rooney’s relatively low numbers in the box, courtesy of the deeper lying role he has sometimes played this season, are made up for by the fact that he is the leading forward in chances created numbers (26 or 2.2. per game). 

For a couple of seasons now, having a few luxury midfield options has proven a safe and productive strategy. During the second half of last season, if you didn’t have the pricey Gareth Bale, Juan Mata/Eden Hazard, Theo Walcott/Santi Cazorla in your team, you were probably in a world of your own. Even in seasons past, many of us were sacrificing whatever was needed in order to have the likes of Christiano Ronaldo and Cesc Fabregas in our squads, who were the guys racking up consistently huge scores. This season’s best midfield choice so far began at a price of 5.5M, and would barely have figured in anybody’s thoughts. Aaron Ramsey has transformed this season, and in the space of a few months has become the most popular player in the game at well over 50% ownership. 

His performances have also turned the old model, of stacking a team full of attacking midfielders and wingers, on its head. Ramsey’s teammate Mesut Ozil, the games priciest midfielder, held a huge amount of promise for those managers who rushed to bring him in after his January signing, but his form has been cool at times, meaning many are looking to offload him and pinning their hopes elsewhere. At the same time, the luxury Chelsea options appear to be either taking points off each other, or are clouded by the ever present danger of rotation (see below). Such players are always going to have stand out weeks – for example Mesut’s two goal and then three assist games - but
whether any of them produce consistently enough to warrant their high price tag when mid-priced options like an in-form Adam Lallana (who is leading the penalty box touches stat for midfielders at 59 or 4.5 a game), remains to be seen.

Unlike strikers, the leading midfield scorers this year are not the ones firing off the most shots (Spurs Andros Townsend and Paulinho are well ahead in that department, but you won’t find them in the top ten), rather it’s those who are creating the most chances who dominate (Ramsey who is scoring goals like there is no tomorrow is the exception).

Midfielders

Chances Created
(per game played)

Goals/Assists

Total FPL points
(per game played)

Steven Gerrard

30 (2.3)

3/5

69 (5.3)

Samir Nasri

29 (2.2)

4/4

63 (4.8)

Mesut Ozil

29 (2.9)

2/7

64 (6.4)

Eden Hazard

28 (2.8)

4/5

72 (5.5)

Aaron Ramsey

18 (1.4)

8/4

94 (7.2)


Remember to expect surprisesDavid Silva has played almost half as many games as those top two, and yet has still created created 27 chances (3.85pg), so keep your eyes on his fitness battle, as he’ll no doubt be on our wishlist at some stage during the second half of the season.

If I’d written this a week or so earlier I would have been talking about the incredible defensive resilience of Spurs, who had kept seven clean sheets in the opening ten games…cue their biggest loss in 17 years, as Man City managed to put six past them at the Etihad. Even City themselves have managed to couple huge scoring wins (7-0 Norwich) with surprising defeats (scoreless and a loss to Sunderland the week later). Their home form continues, but away from home this season, they’ve been patchy at best.

Manchester United hadn’t kept a clean sheet for six games, before managing one against Arsenal (but not at home to Cardiff the week later!). Anyway, you get the idea. Consistency has not been much of a feature of this season. Chances are that you captained either Aguero or Suarez last weekend (at home to Swansea and away to Hull respectively), only to be left with a blank. One of the toughest parts of the game is not only being able to predict a player hot streak when it’s coming, and also being able to take a punt on when it will end as opposed to holding on too long.

Jose Mourinho couldn’t care less what you think

Juan Mata would walk into just about any team in the world, and if he was playing even semi-consistently, chances are he’d probably walk into many of our fantasy squads as well. He finished last season as the fourth most popular midfield choice, and he repaid the faith of those who selected him by being the third highest scorer in the game behind RVP and Gareth Bale. This year, his reluctance to track back (apparently), has kept him on the sidelines much to the amazement of many FPL managers who are just waiting for a whiff of game time for the Spaniard. 

For a side third on the table, Chelsea amazingly doesn’t have a striker scoring in the FPL forwards top twenty! An aging Samuel Eto’o has scored twice in eight appearances, and Torres looks set for his third patchy season on the trot. Added to that, last weekend aside, Jose seems intent not to play Demba Ba (who at Newcastle had periods of FPL greatness) and yes, he sent Romelu Lukaku out on loan when many of us started with him in our gameweek one squads expecting  a break-out season! So while Juan Mata has now made his appearance last weekend, and predictably delivered something pretty much instantly, it requires a bit of a leap of faith to invest too much and rely each week on the whims of Jose.

The Bonus Point rule changes really did change the game

Throwing the usual unwritten rule book out the window this year were the changes introduced to the way player bonus points are being allocated. This comes following a few different approaches in recent years, each with their own controversies. The net effect of the approach taken this year has meant that we very quickly saw central defenders much more likely to take bonus points in scoreless or low scoring games than ever before. Looking back, attacking wingbacks like Leighton Baines were the best option and chance of bonus from the defensive half. In fact, Baines was the only defender in the top 30 total bonus points at the end of last year…but even a quick look at this year so far shows the likes of Phil Jagielka, Jan Vertonghen and John Terry, all figuring in the leading pack.

Current Bonus Point Leaders

Position

Points
(times max 3pts)

Wayne Rooney

FWD

18 (5)

Sergio Aguero

FWD

16 (4)

Aaron Ramsey

MID

15 (3)

Phil Jagielka

DEF

14 (3)

Loic Remy

FWD

14 (3)

John Terry

DEF

13 (3)

Injury Issues

The injury list includes quite a few high profile niggles at the moment. Many of us watched our keeper Artur Boruc come from the field with a hand injury which has him set for around a 6 week absence. That forces many of us into the most reluctant of weekly transfers, a keeper trade. I’ve always personally gone with fixture rotation as the deciding factor on which keepers I’ll choose, looking ahead around ten weeks to find a pair who combine to give me a decent home fixture every week. At the moment, that means I’ll be taking a gamble on Julian Speroni of Crystal Palace (to hopefully be rejuvenated under a defensive Tony Pulis regime) to partner Allan McGregor of Hull.

Leighton Baines’ toe injury creates a headache for many, but didn’t appear to dent Everton’s defensive resilience as they picked up a clean sheet even without him against Stoke. Seamus Coleman shone for 13 points, but now faces a tough run away to Manchester United and Arsenal in the next two.

Daniel Sturridge hasn’t recovered from an ankle issue meaning the Liverpool strike force will be without one half of their dynamic duo for a few weeks. It’ll be interesting to see if and how Luis Suarez’s performances are effected (additionally with Jose Enrique the marauding wingback also missing for an extended period of up to 10 weeks), and whether his Hull blank last weekend was just an anomaly. 

David Silva is expected back from a calf issue in mid-December, and could start taking back points from newly resurgent teammate Samir Nasri.

Fixture Watch and Captain Choices

There are a kind run of fixtures for Liverpool from gameweeks 14 to 17 which see Norwich, West Ham and Cardiff visiting Merseyside. Luis Suarez will undoubtedly be the overwhelming captaincy choice those weeks. Recent darling of FPL managers, Sergio Aguero however is coming into a more difficult fixture patch at the same time with away games to WBA and the defensive surprise packet of the season Southhampton, being flanked by home games to Arsenal and Liverpool.

Manchester United are at home for three of the next four, including Newcastle and West Ham, which will be music to the ears of Wayne Rooney owners. For a riskier choice potentially capable of helping you either catch up or draw clear of your mini-league rivals, take a look at Shane Long of WBA from gameweek 15 against the leaky Norwich, followed by Cardiff away, and then Hull at home. He’s owned by less than 2% of players in the game and has produced goals or assists in each of his last three.