The game last Saturday night lived up to the hype and the season of hard work that led to the first versus second match between the Central Coast Mariners and the Brisbane Roar. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that this game showed that the correct two teams ended at the top of the table and I am willing to admit (somewhat begrudgingly) that the best team on the night came out with the win.
However the final score was probably a little flattering for the Roar, there was probably only a few percent difference in the performances of the two teams. The Roar was running at almost 100% as is the norm for this team when they come up against the Mariners especially here are Gosford. The Mariners unfortunately were playing at around 95%, this level of effort would be more than enough to best all the other teams in this competition. Unfortunately if you want to beat this incredible Roar team you must be running at 100% if not 110%.
The thing that I love the most about finals is that we saw this great game last week and this weekend we get to see the rematch. Could we get two games of the same quality back to back. I hope not, I would rather see the Mariners come up 5% and the Roar stay at the level they were last week and we end up with a spectacle that will blind any human who dares to look directly at the pitch during the game. Only to be followed by the same two teams a few weeks later in the main event of the finals. This would only be fitting for the season and of course would see the Mighty Mariners return to the ACL net year whether they win the Grand Final or not.
So how do the Mariners get that extra 5% out of the team? What can they do to make the game swing their way?
As with any strategic planning the first thing to do would be to look at the history. There have been the three games with the Roar this year in the regular season, two losses and a draw. So the first loss was early in the season and was possibly the catalyst for both teams kicking into high gear. The Roar really showed their class in the game and have continued to show it since, the Mariners seemed to take some heart out this game and the way they stood up to a team, that went on a devastating run over other teams after this game. The next time the teams met was a more than forgettable day for the Mariners, how do we erase that 5-1 game from our memories. The third game was the amazing three all draw at Blue Tongue and this game was the closest the Roar really came to missing out on the record breaking unbeaten run. Then there is last week. So what do we take from these games, what are the similarities between these games?
The one similarity that really jumps out at me is that the two games where Graham Arnold made a change to the team line up from the one that served him so well all year both ended in a poor result. The night that should never be spoken of again after this comment was the first time Arnie changed his formation to combat the Roar, this ended, well we know how it went. Then last weekend Graham decided to stay with John Hutchinson in the holding midfield role, admittedly he played quite well in the previous two games however the opposition was certainly not to the Roar level. Why does Hutch always seem to receive the ball, proceed to immediately turn in a large arc away from the opposition goal only to pass the ball back to either Wilko or Zwaanswijk. It almost seems as if he has a magnetic attraction toward our own posts that activates the moment he touches the football. The team seemed to really lack a lot of forward momentum without Rostyn in front of the back four. Without another player who could push the ball forward, the Roar were able to put pressure on Zwaanswijk and stop his distribution. So the one game that stands out from the four is the three all draw, in this game the Mariners went in thinking they were good enough and trusted in the formation as well as the squad.
How do the Mariners get back into the tie?
The first is to move John Hutchinson back to the bench where he has spent the majority of the season. John has been a great servant for this club and he still has a very valuable place on the team and within the club. However I do not believe that that pace is in the first eleven. Hutch is a great resource to have on the bench as he has a stabilising influence on the younger guys and can certainly be used to shut down a game once the Mariners are in front. John is also a valuable injury replacement for the squad and with the finals deep benches he will be an important member of the bench.
The most obvious thing the team has to do is to sharpen up and become ruthless in front of goal. Arnie had the boys out this week performing extra shooting practice. I know that everyone loved to point at the Mariners great scoring record (scored a goal in 20 consecutive games) however this may have been hiding some of the wastefulness the Mariners have been showing. If we look back a month ago to the game in Adelaide when the Mariners put in one of their best performances all year in a dominant 2-0 win. The reality is they could have had the score at 4 or 5 before half time and well beyond in the second half. However they were quite wasteful with their opportunities and if we look at the game two weeks ago against the Jets the team were just as wasteful and only managed to put a goal away in the final moments. So what else can be done beyond the extra training? Well I believe that the goals have dried up for Adam Kwasnik since his Achilles problem has flared, he may not quite be at one hundred percent and maybe it is time to leave him out of the team. Last week he was not the super sub we saw earlier in the season, maybe we need to give Bernie or Duke a chance on the bench this weekend. This game is not sudden death so if this gamble fails at least there is still next week.
The last thing I would like to see Arnie do is the same as one of the things he has tried in the last two games. Play Musti and Perez at the same time. I would like to see him try this a little earlier in the game or perhaps even start the game this way this week. Again if the gamble fails we still have next week but the only way we will get into the Grand Final after the weekend is to go out there and score repeatedly. Why not spearhead the attack with Matt Simon and Perez with Musti playing in behind? With the larger benches we will be able to carry McBreen on the bench in case this fails to yield results. This would also allow Graham the possibility of pulling one of the other midfielders if they have an off day such as Bozanic last week. While we have nothing to lose and everything to gain I think we have a chance to make some real positive and bold plays. I know I am kind of contradicting myself here but I think playing these two changes (a young striker on the bench and Musti/Perez on the park at once) are going to be positive changes that may just pay off. The third change (Rostyn in for Hutch) is really just returning the team dynamic to what has worked so well last year.
**Updated - Given the injury to Simon I guess it will need to be McBreen and Perez. Given the great run the Mariners have had with injury the luck had to run out sooner or later I guess.
Here hoping for a 3-0 Mariners win.
