The ultimate round 10 of the W-League lived up to its knife-edge promise, with an almost complete reshuffle of the top four. Sydney shut down likely golden boot Michelle Heyman and snatched the premiership from the Central Coast with a 35th-minute strike by last season’s golden boot Leena Khamis.

Canberra snuck into fourth after they beat Adelaide and incumbent fourth place holders Melbourne relinquished their hold on it — and will now miss the finals — after going 2-0 down to Perth. Roar Women were the only ones not to move rungs, but they consolidated third spot and, courtesy of a clinical 6-0 win over the winless Newcastle, reminded us all that they should really have finished in the top two.

The results set up Sydney v Canberra and Central Coast v Roar semi finals with the questions on everybody’s lips being: Who’ll win this weekend? And who’ll take out the W-League version of the toilet seat?

My answer is: I honestly don’t know.

There are four serious, skillful contenders in what is shaping up to be a football photo finish. What will separate them — indeed, what’s been a consistent theme this season — will be confidence.

With just 10 short weeks before finals, just one slip has the potential to derail a team’s season and results in, as we saw with Roar in round eight, funereal-like devastation. Their much-documented draw, followed by the next week’s shock loss to Perth, saw them slip from first to third and wave goodbye to an 18-match undefeated streak, not to mention a Premiership we all but thought they had in the bag.

But encouragingly for resurgent Roar, the other three top-four teams have had their confidence shaken too. Central Coast Mariners have been almost unstoppable, with everything striker Michelle Heyman (who scored not one goal in season one) touching turning to goals. But this round saw Sydney FC shut down their attack and run their defence ragged, with Central Coast at a loss to score without Heyman free in front of goal and only one-woman-goal-stopper Loyden keeping the deficit at one.

Indeed, like Roar before them, Central Coast have seen the view from the top and had the Premiership within their sights, only to heart-breakingly, confidence-dashingly relinquish both at last moment. They’ll be heading into the semi final slightly rattled and trying to regroup and will be up against perhaps the strongest opponents of them all in fiercely-determined-to-turn-their-season-around Roar.

Sydney might have finished strong by toppling Central Coast, but their season started shakily. They went down 3-1 to Central Coast in a shock loss in round one and were only scraping through with one or two goals a game for at least half the season. The goalscoring floodgates opened for them in round five with a 6-0 win over Adelaide, and they’ve largely stayed open since, with Sydney posting confidence-boosting 5-2 and 6-2 wins in rounds eight and nine.

Canberra too started slow and finished strong, kicking off with a 3-0 loss to Roar in a grand final rematch. They scraped into the top four by the relieved skin of their teeth with a where’s-that-been-all-season 3-0 win over Adelaide on Saturday.

I’m reluctant to predict semi (or even grand) final winners, as anything commited to paper is likely to go down in couldn’t-have-been-more-wrong history, but I’d say that Sydney are hitting their straps — and finding their confidence — at just the right time. So too are Roar, despite their two-match wobbles, which might even prove a focusing, hunger-inducing blessing in disguise. Central Coast have had theirs shaken at just the wrong time and Canberra are reasonably confident but also highly aware that they are in the finals as much due to Melbourne’s loss as their own win.

Combine well-timed boosts in confidence with the fact that both Sydney and Roar comprise the largest contingents of big-match-experienced Matildas and that any number of players — including defenders Heather Garriock and Clare Polkinghorne — can score for them, and you’d have to tip — famous last words — both Sydney and Roar to get up.

Regardless of who you’re tipping to win, perhaps the biggest winner will be us, with the ABC broadcasting—hip, hip, hooray!—both semi finals live.