It's a two horse race up top, but what about the five way dance at the bottom?
With the Premier League title race down to a two horse race, which could be decided in the Manchester derby on April 30, a much more intriguing battle is taking place at the other end of the table, with no less than five, maybe even six (if you include Aston Villa), teams battling to stave off the dreaded drop to the Championship.
What makes it even more interesting though, is that of those clubs, only one of them have come up from the Championship in the last two years. Wolves have avoided relegation twice under Mick McCarthy, who has been sacked this season, while Bolton’s 11 year stay in the Premier League also looks under serious threat. Wigan’s luck might also be set to run out, after surviving, more often than not barely, in the Premier League since 2007 whilst former champions Blackburn, the only club outside of Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea to win the title in the Premier League era, could also find themselves on the wrong side of the feared red line.
Somewhat ironically, the only club that achieved promotion last season that is seriously threatened by the immediate drop is that with the most financial clout of the three. Queens Park Rangers have spent a good amount of money on bringing in new faces, in the hopes of winning Premier League survivial, but it is the refreshing approaches of Norwich and particularly Swansea that have reaped far greater rewards thus far. Interestingly, their policy was largely based, perhaps through necessity rather than choice, on keeping faith with the teams and systems that won them promotion, and for the most part it has been one vindicated by some impressive results. QPR remain in real danger of the drop though, despite lucrative transfers and their stunning comeback win over Liverpool.
With nine games to go, the reality is that it is quite hard to make a solid prediction on who will go down. Only six points separate 20th from 16th, and only five points between 18th and 16th, meaning any three of those five teams have a real chance of demotion. Aston Villa aren’t entirely out of the woods either and will need to guard against complacency, but with a ten point buffer between them and the dreaded 18th spot, it would require a disaster for them to be relegated.
The turgid form of Terry Connor’s Wolves outfit, who have shipped 12 goals in three Premier League games puts their Premier League involvement beyond this season in massive jeapordy. Mick McCarthy might have steered them just clear of the drop for two seasons, but it seems a task beyond the hapless Connor, and with the Wolves board determined to stick by their man, it’s hard to see such a rut in form ending any time soon. Big matches against Norwich, Bolton and Wigan, who they play at the DW Stadium on the last day will be pivotal to their survival attempt, and really any less than maximum points from those three games will do.
Wigan do not look in much better shape, but having saved seasons from similar positions under manager Roberto Martinez before, there is the feeling that he could pull off yet another great escape with the Lactics, whose continued presence in the Premier League has surely bewildered many. With an incredibly tough run in though, this might be one escape Martinez is not capable of pulling off. Liverpool and Chelsea will visit the DW over the coming three weeks, before they travel to Old Trafford and then welcome Arsenal. Even for the most optimistic of the Latics, that can’t possibly bode well.
Bolton have endured a tough season to date, and the tragic collapse of Fabrice Muamba in the FA Cup tie against Tottenham has undeniably rocked the club to it’s core. One can’t help but feel that the way in which Bolton react to these trials of character will determine whether or not they will survive in the Premier League. With the club’s energies solely pouring into the ongoing support of Muamba, football seems a secondary concern in Bolton at the moment, and rightly so. Muamba’s impressive recovery to date could provide the emotional lift Bolton desperately need in this time. With Premier League action to recommence for the club, after their midweek clash was postponed in light of the Muamba incident, they will need to do their best to regain their focus, particularly with a massive double header to come against Blackburn and then Wolves in consecutive weeks in the league for six points that could determine the future of a club that has been a regular fixture in the Premier League over the last decade.
Blackburn meanwhile have done tremendously well to salvage what honeslty looked a lost cause earlier this season. Steve Kean’s greatest achievement this season is probably the way in which he has spurred his side on from the terrible rut of form that had so many write them off as relegation certainties this season. The vociferous reception with which he was greeted at Ewood Park has slowly quietened as he steers the club to safety, but that could all change with crunch six-pointers against the likes of Bolton and Wigan in the last nine games.
With nine games for most (Bolton have a game in hand) to play, and so many of the relegation threatened teams set to play each other, the race for survival could not possibly get any more intense. It will end in heartbreak for three, but their might just be a tale of triumph and bravery for some of these sides, for whom simply remaining in the game is as meaningful as winning the title itself.
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