Part of the adoration in England for the Christmas fixtures is wholehearted the Boxing Day bonanza, but also the New Years fixtures.

The New Year offers chance for a recalibration for teams in the league, often you see a handful of teams start to purr, whilst others start to splutter. Last year Crystal Palace had that “first half good, second half not so good” effect, which bled into this season and cost Alan Pardew his job. Last season saw Leicester buccaneering and high scoring until Christmas, then stoic One Nillers from then on. Also it is this time of year is when in recent history Arsenal have played themselves out of title reckoning with cold displays to match the time of year.

The Arsenal faithful are notoriously fickle about their team, and so knee jerk reactions about the side are ten a penny. Each season they start well and they're going to walk the league blindfold. During winter they’re apparently the worst team in the league, and Arsene Wenger is producing the con of all cons by still being in a job. They then close the season in good form, with the pressure off, and the fans return to thinking next year will be a walk in the park. Rinse and repeat for the last 12 years.

The reality is, remove the hyperbole from the previous paragraph and you have an extremely brief summation of how Arsenal’s last 12 league challenges have unfolded.

November has historically been their poorest month, averaging just 1.59 points per game in Wenger’s 20 years prior to this one, but December, January and February all see them dip under 2points per game average that’s usually needed to be in with a shout of winning titles. Then for March and April they’re back up to a healthy 2.18 and 2.09 points respectively.

Obviously this is an average, and includes Arsenal’s more dominant years in the 90’s and early 00’s rather than this seemingly more fragile incarnation from the last 12 years. But November saw 1.66points per game this year, and in the last few games have been shaky signs for the Gunners, a couple of big game defeats against Man City and  Everton seemed to really rock their confidence and a late win at home against West Brom hasn’t probably done a great deal to restore that. 

Come from behind wins and draws have come to give a sense that this isn’t an ordinary year for Arsenal, that they’ve added more character. “Playing ugly and winning is the sign of a title team” is another oft utilised cliche by the more humdrum pundits in the UK, and obviously if you then add form and performances on top of it - you generally are in the mix for the league, but the two defeats seem to have knocked the Christmas stuffing out of the North Londoners and that missing form is now what makes the Gunners next few matches so crucial.

Another aspect of Arsenal under Wenger is the manager himself. By intention or by impulse, when his team loses he takes it so sorely, often blaming other malevolent forces at play. Now I like a sore loser, it’s a sign of someone who is usually winning, but it seemingly exacerbates any loss to feel devastating and the team seem to feel victimised. With games coming thick and fast this time of year, it takes strong characters to drag themselves out of that mentality. The antithesis to this is Jurgen Klopp. Liverpool dropped 3 points from twice being two goals ahead vs Bournemouth. Most managers would be demonic and have a tear up at the post-match interviews. Alternatively, Klopp praised Bournemouth for their spirit, and said these type of matches the spirit of the league and hey-ho it wasn’t his day. Since then they’ve won 3 and drawn one and kept in touching distance of Chelsea (just) and their mentality looks strong.

Arsenal host Crystal Palace on New Year’s Day, and under Pardew you’d expect an easy three points, but Arsenal fans will have a sense of foreboding as “Big” Sam Allardyce is back in the Premier League at Palace and as folklore has it - enjoys getting under the skin of Wenger. 

Arsene Wenger has a squad good enough to challenge that of Chelsea, if not necessarily beat it. He has cover in most positions, except centre back, and with Danny Welbeck and Aaron Ramsey not too far away from returning, you sense they could give a boost themselves. That and they have two of the most gifted players in the league with Alexi Sanchez and Mesut Ozil. 

It’s up to Wenger to re-galvanise his team now, instil a more forward thinking mentality going into January and February to really have a chance of winning the league. Forget the referring decisions and comments from opposition managers, concentrate on the character and determination already shown earlier in the year and add some more flair and flamboyance. Next is Crystal Palace at home, and a game you should be winning if you’re Arsenal, but Allardyce won’t wrap up the three points and hand them over.

So given the last few weeks of unease, it should be a good barometer of how the rest of Arsenal’s season will go and in this case the manner of the performance matters incredibly. A limp display, with wandering Ozils and challenge shirking all around, they may be troubled for top four this year.

A dominant and ruthless display with verve and commitment would show a shift in gear and dedication to the league challenge from the players, something Wenger must have high on his New Years wishlist.