International football doesn't mean as much as it used to...
At times you'd be forgiven for thinking this, such are the attitudes of certain players, fans, and coaches involved in the beautiful game. Australian-born Liverpool star of the 1980s, Craig Johnston, once (in)famously described playing football for Australia as "Like surfing for England". The English national team is missing a class left back due to the player in question ruling himself out of the squad because of personal issues with a team-mate. Even our Asian Cup qualifiers are at times treated by fans, media, and overseas coaches as a waste of time against supposedly useless opposition... I mean come on, haven't they heard of Oceania?
It's hard to believe that such attitudes prevail in a country that once, many years ago, flocked to see international teams touring our shores - even if it was 'just' New Zealand or a Hong Kong Invitational XI. Still, they do - and once in a while, we need a splash of cold water across the face to bring us back to reality.
The World Cup is that cold water.
This is a competition with the romance of the FA Cup combined with the stars of the UEFA Champions League. It remains the pinnacle of our sport, and still produces classics for the ages - Portugal v North Korea in '66, the five-goal second half between Holland and Brazil in 1994, and of course the infamous 'hand of God' back in 1986. On a personal note, I remember the sheer shock of Senegal beating France in 2002 as a standout moment of that tournament - but many South Koreans will have their own memories of that year, as their team went on an amazing run into the final four.
This wonderful tournament reminds us on a constant basis that favourites don't always become champions; that the true measure of a team depends on them performing consistently and not just handing out a beating once in a while; and that underdogs quite often have a very nasty bite. Australians in particular know all too well about that; both in our 2006 exploits and some of the 'shock' results suffered in Asia since then.
Over the coming weeks I'll be bringing you commentary, analysis and trivia on the 2010 World Cup, as well as delving back into some of the matches that have made this tournament so great. I hope you'll be joining me for the journey as we seek to once again re-energise the public's attitudes towards international football.
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Against All Odds
To begin with, this week I'll be giving a quick overview of who the bookies believe will be making it big in South Africa. Looking at the betting patterns at Ladbrokes UK (my local, plus the Australian TAB skews betting towards the Socceroos anyway), it's not hard to see who people fancy as the main contenders - and which countries are there just to make up the numbers. Before foolishly placing your bets, please keep in mind these are UK odds and they were correct as of Wednesday night; your mileage may vary...
The Favourites (4/1 - 7/1)
It's pretty obvious who the teams to beat are at this World Cup. Spain are the reigning European Champions and 4/1 favourites, and Brazil have appeared in the final at three of the last four competitions, which probably reflects in their price of 9/2. Somewhat amusingly - given the team's history in the tournament - England are close behind these teams in World Cup betting; and while they may actually have a good coach for once, I can't help but think the British public are being a little optimistic with their figure of 11/2 for their side. Finally,Argentina are the other heavily-backed side at 7/1; and despite their legend-cum-loco of a coach, it seems that any team with players like Messi will always be considered a good chance.
The Contenders (10/1 - 29/1)
Our next group of nations is a mix of teams that know what winning World Cups is all about, and those who just have players of such quality that you are forced to give them respect. One of these teams is the Ivory Coast, whose strike force includes Chelsea teammates Didier Drogba and Salomon Kalou. They and fellow Group G team Brazil will have to face Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal, a team that blows hot and cold but knows how to advance through tournaments - just ask Wayne Rooney and England.
Also in the mix are defending champions Italy, who face our Kiwi brothers in Group F. Fellow European heavyweights France, Germany, and Holland are all ready to make a charge at the trophy as well, and have to be respected if just for their records in the tournament alone. Of these teams, Germany are considered to be the best chance at mounting a challenge, with Ladbrokes listing them at 10/1 odds, with Portugal and the Ivory Coast being considered the most unlikely at 20/1 and 28/1 respectively.
The Troublemakers (50/1 - 80/1)
This is the term that I have given to the teams whom punters seem to think don't have a real chance of winning the trophy, but could still cause an upset or two along the way. South American qualifiers Chile and Paraguay have the shortest odds at 50/1, with hosts South Africa sitting at 80/1 alongside Mexico and fellow African qualifiers Nigeria. Two other African sides, Cameroon and Ghana, are also lined up as potential bumps in the road for more fancied opponents.
Denmark have caused problems for big sides before; most famously lifting the 1992 European Championship trophy with the help of goalkeeper Peter Schmeichel. They've also made the round of 16 or higher in each of the three World Cups they have qualified for since 1986. The bookies currently have them at 66/1, alongside one of Australia's immediate opponents, Serbia. Also at 66/1 and rounding out our group of middling nations are USA and Uruguay, who both have reasonable chances of making it out of their groups.
The Rest (100/1 - 200/1)
Let's face it, if you've got odds of 100/1 to 200/1 on your head for winning the World Cup, more than likely you're expected to go out in the group stages. However, some of these teams might put up more of a fight than people expect. Greece and Australia, shortest priced nations in this collection at 100/1, would certainly be no pushovers for their respective opponents. While both sides arguably aren't as strong as they were four to six years ago, neither are going to make their group an easy place to be.
South Korea, so impressive in the 2002 World Cup, have had a harder time of things on foreign soil; and this is reflected in their odds of 125/1. Meanwhile, sitting at 150/1 we have Switzerland, Slovakia, and Algeria. Japan and Slovenia then round off this group of nations with 200/1 odds of winning the title.
An Ice Cube's Chance In Hell (1000/1)
As Oceania minnows New Zealand take up the place formerly held by Australia as rank outsiders at the World Cup, they're joined by CONCACAF surprise packet Honduras, who managed an upset win over Mexico during qualifying to help secure their ticket to Jo'burg. Rounding out the least likely group of World Cup winners is everyone's favourite little dictatorship, North Korea. Though this wouldn't be the first time the 'Red' Koreans had made a ruckus at a World Cup, it's unlikely to happen in South Africa. That said, you never know - and with such healthy odds on their heads, some of these sides may well be worth a punt for a win in a group game.
So, South Africa draws ever closer, and there lie the odds at this point in time; and while you may think they're pretty straightforward, only one thing's for sure - just how unpredictable the World Cup can be.
And I for one cannot wait to see how this one pans out...