I'm not great at maths, but even I know four into two doesn't go.
With the regular A-League season boiling to a climax, matters in mid-table, and in particular the teams who will ultimately occupy the final two post-season spots, are far from decided.
Results fell Phoenix's way over the weekend. A faltering and understrength Jets were hammered by Gold Coast and neither Melbourne team were able to steal a march after their pulsating 2-2 draw.
Phoenix, meantime, put four past Perth and raised hopes that it'll be consecutive playoff campaigns for the Yellow Fever faithful.
So, where are we?
Victory - 26 games, 34 points
Heart - 27 games, 33 points
Phoenix - 25 games, 32 points
Newcastle - 25 games, 31 points
It could hardly be tighter. Anyone who can get to forty points will be safely through, but a team who doesn't reach that magical points mark might also squeak in, depending on other results.
So who's it going to be? Let's assess the chances of each.
Melbourne Victory
Why they'll make the six: They've been here - and far beyond - before. Grand finalists in three of the past four seasons tells the tale. The experience of knowing how get into the playoffs is a vital commodity. They've got the most points at the moment. They still have to play Fury.
Why they'll miss out: No Kevin Muscat for - if there is a football God - the rest of the season. No Robbie Kruse for a while longer, and therefore no-one to score goals consistently. Speed wobbles with just two points from the last twelve.
Melbourne Heart
Why they'll make the six: They are the form team of this mid-table quartet, unbeaten in their last six. They're scoring goals. In Alex Terra they have a potentially brilliant match-winner. Defensively sound of late.
Why they'll miss out: Not enough games left. They've only got three to play, including a trip to Brisbane and a visit from the A-League's current form team, the Mariners, from which they might get nothing. Maybe the run has been left too late. The mid-season slump will haunt them.
Wellington Phoenix
Why they'll make the six: They have games in hand over the two Melbourne sides and are just a win away from leapfrogging both. Marco Rojas is terrorising opposition defences. Home form is terrific with 16 points from the last 18. They can deal a severe blow to Newcastle next week.
Why they'll miss out: They are the worst away team in the league, meaning trips to Brisbane, Adelaide and Sydney might yield nothing. Consistency has eluded Phoenix this season, with back-to-back wins not yet achieved in their 25 games.
Newcastle Jets
Why they'll make the six: They have five games still to play. They can take points from two other playoff contenders in Phoenix and Victory. When they get on a run, they're hard to stop.
Why they'll miss out: Injuries have decimated them. Kasey Wehrman is a huge loss. They seem down on confidence and leaking five against Gold Coast won't have helped. This is unscientific, but they just don't feel like a playoff side.
For what it's worth, I think it'll be Victory and Phoenix who make the six. But with 22 regular season matches still to play, this season of twists and turns will surely have a few more yet.
