EXCLUSIVE: The must-win scenario for Sunday’s blockbuster will suit Sydney’s mentality but Victory’s razor-sharp counter-attack will give Melbourne the edge, says former Victory midfielder Joe Keenan.
To see Sydney training today...
Victory only need to avoid defeat against Sydney at the SFS and they'll retain the Premiership - the first club ever to defend the A-League title with back-to-back wins.
Sydney, two points short of Melbourne, must win to take the Plate.
A draw might be enough for Sydney to hold onto a coveted top two spot - and the opportunity of the double chance in the A-League finals - if Gold Coast United can't defeat North Queensland Fury in Townsville.
Keenan told au.fourfourtwo.com that the scenario will suit the team that must win the three points on Sunday in Sydney.
"It's probably better going out knowing you've got to get the win," he said. "Then there's no indecision, you're left with one strategy which is attack. You don't have the dilemma of do we play defensive and try shut them out or take the draw.
"Sydney know what they've got to do. It's very simple. If they win, they win the title whereas Melbourne are going to be in two minds about what to do.
"And Victory might not want to attack too much because if they don't concede, they win the title. So that plays on your mind a little whereas Sydney can't sit back, they can't play for the draw.
"It takes out the indecision... perhaps they [Sydney] are in a better position."
While Victory coach Ernie Merrick isan attacking coach by nature, the reigning champions are short on recognised strikers. Archie Thompson is out injured and Robbie Kruse's shoulder is a big concern ahead of such an important game.
Much will rest on the form of striker temp Nik Mrdja, and of course Carlos Hernandez just in behind.
But it's Victory's success on the counter that will come to the fore no matter who plays up front, predicted Keenan.
"I think goals will be hard to come by," he said. "And Victory may feel their way into the game and be a little cautious because the longer the game goes without conceding, the more they'll frustrate Sydney.
"And Sydney will then throw caution to the wind - hopefully from Victory's point of view.
"That's where they'll get more of an opportunity to pick them off on the counter-attack - and counter-attack has been one of Victory's strengths."
Speedy youngsters such as Marvin Angulo and Aziz Behich could be deployed late on to hit Sydney on the counter - particularly if the home side is chasing the result.
Keenan, 27, also suggested a man-marking assignment was an option that Vitezslav Lavicka might explore for either of his two defensive midfielders Terry McFlynn or Stuart Musialik.
He added: "Carlos is the one who can turn the game. So I'd be tempted."
With Carlos a lethal threat from set pieces, avoiding free kicks on the edge of the box will be drummed into the sky blues.
And both coaches will be underlining the importance of keeping a cool head even in such a white-hot atmosphere.
"I think a lot of it will come down to experience," said Keenan. "Nerves will play a big part in a game like this, with so much riding on the result.
"With a big crowd as well nerves are going to take a hold of you if you're not careful on such a big occasion.
"Those more experienced players who under pressure can handle it will be key to who triumphs."
Victory will be without two of their most experienced players at both ends of the ground - Kevin Muscat and Thompson. "And Kempy [Matthew Kemp] is a big loss," he added.
Grant Brebner, Rodrigo Vargas and Carlos Hernandez will be the prime movers in front of an expected 40,000 fans - including a large number of travelling supporters.
After two seasons with Victory last season Keenan made the switch to Hibernian in the SPL.
Keenan began his career with four years at Chelsea player but is now back in Melbourne with VPL side South Melbourne. He retains strong links with the city's A-League club.
"I've spoken to some of the [Victory] players and they are quite tense," he said. "It's not the ideal situation to go into away from home. To not lose but their fate is in their own hands and there's such a buzz down here."
Ultimately though, it was about how an attacking coach like Merrick might construct a counter-attacking game-plan with the players at his disposal that could hurt the sky blues. And that will be how the visitor will undo Sydney.
Keenan predicted: "I think the game will be tense early on and there'll be a goal in the second half. I think Victory will catch them on the counter and win 1-0."
To see Sydney training today...
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