Wellington Phoenix need wins early in 2012 to ensure play-off participation.
January will define Wellington Phoenix’s season.
The first five games of 2012 will go a long way towards determining (a) whether they’ll be contesting the playoffs for the third straight season and (b) if at least the first of those games will be at home.
The reasons and possible solutions for Phoenix’s poor away form are the subject of another (upcoming) blog, but it’s fairly obvious they’re a better chance of winning at home than they are away. Therefore, if post-season progress is to be made, a fourth-placed finish is the minimum requirement.
Phoenix play five matches in January. The first two are at home when Sydney FC and Perth Glory visit in quick succession. Quite simply, these two games must be won. Both clubs are repeat visitors to Wellington this season and both were beaten last time they came calling.
Following that, there are two away matches which give Phoenix a brilliant opportunity to break their travelling blues. First up it’s a trip to Gold Coast and the freshly discovered defensive steel from Miron’s men which has led to four consecutive clean sheets. But if it’s to be a top four finish for Phoenix, sides like Gold Coast need to be dispatched, regardless of the venue.
Then, it’s a trip to Newcastle. Phoenix and the Jets have been inextricably linked since Wellington’s inclusion in the A-League in 2007. A number of players have represented both clubs, including Tim Brown, Andrew Durante, Troy Hearfield, Richard Johnson, Steven Old, Vaughn Coveny, Jade North and Mirjan Pavlovic. The epic extra-time playoff match in Wellington in March 2010 will live long in the memory. And over the years, Phoenix have had Newcastle’s measure, particularly at home where they’ve won the last eight clashes between the two.
In the two games so far this season, Phoenix have collected all six points with 2-0 and 5-2 wins in Wellington. On both occasions they’ve dominated and there seems no good reason why they shouldn’t do the same when the two meet at Ausgrid. The Jets are even more inconsistent than Phoenix; capable of beating the Mariners, Victory and Heart this season, but just as likely to capitulate the following weekend. While this inconsistency makes them a dangerous proposition, the same bottom line applies; a targeted top four finish for Phoenix makes a win here vital.
The major reason the first four games in January are crucial is because the last game of the month and the four matches in February are as tough a quintet as they come. The red-hot Melbourne Heart visit on the last Sunday in January before February serves up away games in Adelaide, Gosford and Sydney and a visit from defending champs Brisbane.
Collecting points in January looks a much simpler assignment than finding them in February, so that’s exactly what must be done. Nine points is the minimum requirement from the next four games. If that can be achieved, Phoenix will be well and truly in the playoff mix as they contemplate the last nine games of the regular season. If it can’t, a far more arduous run-in awaits.
Consider this. Of the last nine games of the regular season for Phoenix, just four are at home and three of those are against the current top trio on the table. The last two months of the season are extremely demanding, which makes wins in the next four games absolutely critical.
Roughly speaking, forty points should clinch fourth spot. That’s 22 points needed from the next thirteen games, or, let’s say, six wins, four draws and just three losses. When you examine the fixture list and the tough clashes to come, the ability to secure the majority of those wins in January shapes as the decisive factor in Phoenix’s season.
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