Lebanon’s unfortunate withdrawal from the Asian Cup Qualifier Group D provided the Qantas Socceroos with a surprisingly easy passage through the qualification process. Having beaten Bahrain in the first match, Australia’s defeat of Kuwait in Sydney on 16 August ensured the Socceroos were the first team to qualify for the 2007 Asian Cup. But Asian competition is fierce, as we recently learnt in Kuwait. Buoyed by our qualification, the Socceroos went down 0-2 in the return leg against a tough Kuwaiti side played in oppressive heat.

Elsewhere in Asia, more than 20 other Asian nations have been battling it out to make it through to the final tournament, to be jointly hosted by Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia next July. Now, the picture of the final countries is becoming clear. Joining Australia as confirmed qualifiers are Qatar, United Arab Emirates, three-time champions Saudi Arabia and reigning champions Japan; while heavyweights Korea and Iran also have one foot in the door. For others though - such as 2004 hosts and finalists China - there’s still plenty of work to be done.

Pain for Bahrain
Bahrain, Australia’s opponents tonight will be desperate to win to avoid a last-ditch play-off against Kuwait. After a semi-final appearance at the 2004 Asian Cup and a near-miss in qualifying for the 2006 World Cup, Bahrain were among the first seeds in this qualifying campaign - ahead of such nations as Korea, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. However, the loss to Australia at home in February, together with a 0-0 draw away to Kuwait and Kuwait’s recent victory over Australia, has put them on the back foot. Unless they beat the Socceroos tonight, Bahrain will face a must-win tie against Kuwait next month to qualify.

In Group A, Japan and Saudi Arabia have streaked through, ahead of Yemen and India. The two sides have scored a combined total of 24 goals and conceded just two. The Saudis have a perfect record after four matches, one of only two teams in the qualifying tournament with this claim. Though Japan lost to the Saudis, their two defeats of Yemen mean that due to the six-point deficit and head-to-head results the Japanese cannot be overtaken.

Group B is more even, though both Korea and Iran are still close to qualification. Syria are struggling to keep in touch with the top two, and unless they win away against Korea today, they are out. The group also contains whipping boys Chinese Taipei, who have conceded 19 goals in four matches without scoring one.

Group C is even tighter, though the United Arab Emirates have already qualified. Oman sit in second, five points ahead of Jordan. Below them, Pakistan have lost all their matches. Though mathematically still possible, for Jordan to qualify they need Oman to draw or lose at home to the UAE, then beat Oman by more than three goals in their final mach – a very unlikely scenario.

The life of a Group E
Group E is the closest of all, with all teams still a chance of qualifying. Favourites Iraq and China are tied in the lead, three points ahead of Singapore and Palestine. If Iraq beat Singapore at home, and China beat Palestine away today, they will both qualify. If that doesn’t happen though, next month’s matches of China and Singapore at home to Iraq and Palestine respectively will be keenly followed.

Though Qatar have already qualified from Group F with a perfect record, the battle for second is closely contested. Tiny Hong Kong are battling with Uzbekistan for the final birth. This shootout is destined to go down to the final round, though Hong Kong face an uphill battle to qualify. Draws in both matches between the teams mean that goal difference will be used to separate the sides if they are tied on points. Hong Kong’s goal difference though is some six goals poorer than Uzbekistan’s. As a result, Hong Kong need to get a result away to Qatar then beat Bangladesh and hope that Uzbekistan slip up in their own matches against those two sides.

Battle for Asia’s best
Soon after the final round of matches are completed in November, AFC House in Kuala Lumpur will host the draw for the Asian Cup finals. This draw will confirm Australia’s group opponents and base host nation. Whatever the draw, the Socceroos will face a significant hurdle in each match.

To progress to the final eight, Australia will have to overcome one of the host nations, most likely one of Asia’s heavyweights, and another nation of a similar calibre as Iraq (conquerors of the Olyroos in Athens). Even heavy favourites have come unstuck in the past, as Saudi Arabia proved in limping home from the 2004 tournament with just a single point.

But when the first match kicks off on the 7th of July next year Australia’s squad will be, barring injury, filled with its European-based stars. It will be Australia’s third ever appearance at a major tournament, and more than a billion people will be watching.

The 2007 Asian Cup will be the opportunity to show that Germany was no fluke. Mark down the day of final - the 29th of July. In less than nine months, the Socceroos will have the chance to prove they are Asia’s best.