Former Head of the A-League Archie Fraser says the coronavirus crisis could see ex-NSL and NPL sides finally allowed into a new-look A-League.
With sport currently devastated by the effects of the pandemic, FFA chief executive James Johnson today warned not all the current A-League clubs may survive the enforced shutdown.
Seven of the 11 current clubs have stood down players and staff, and there are fears new club Macarthur FC may not join the A-League next season as the 12th team.
But it could finally be a chance for sidelined heritage clubs to have a place in the top tier again, believes Fraser.
With Fox Sports missing their last payment date for TV rights money over the suspended season, there are fears the near-$60m a year deal could be abandoned.
If so, it could spell disaster for the A-League, which relies on the cash to fund most of the salary cap for players.
“The FFA’s books are going to be looking horrendous,” Fraser – who ran the A-League from 2009 until 2010 – told the FTBL Year Zero Podcast series,
“Sponsorships are either going to be getting delayed or terminated. Everything has just dried up and they don’t have enough resources.
“It’s a massive issue - it’s a $100m a year business… so $2m-plus a week in costs, going out the door.
“Even standing down 75 percent of staff and costs, then it’s still $500,000 a week. It’s probably higher than that - it’s probably closer to $800,000 to $1 million a week.
“They’ve still got to find $50m to run their business with a whole bunch of diminishing revenues.”
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The concern for Fraser - who has worked in other sports and businesses since leaving the FFA, including a recent stint as CEO of Macarthur FC - is that the club licences may now be worthless.
With no income and potentially several club licences about to become available if current clubs fold, the value of the licences issued by the FFA may plummet.
“It would appear the value in the licences has almost evaporated,” Fraser told the podcast.
“The value of the licence has been the thing keeping a lot of clubs going, thinking they had this asset that is attractive and saleable at some point.
“The fact is their asset has only got worth if they’ve got competitors in the A-League.
“If three or four of the clubs decide, ‘That’s enough, I’m not topping it up any more’, then all of a sudden, I don’t think there’s going to be an appetite for five new licences at $15m each.”
He also fears the owners of Macarthur may pull the plug on joining the league too.
“They have some decisions to make,” said Fraser. “They have a substantial payment due in July.
“The board are probably asking the question, ‘Are we going to pay this and why are we going to pay this?’
“There’s no guarantee of a TV deal, no guarantee of a league - so you’d think they’ll sit back and see who starts up again and who walks away.”
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But Fraser sees the crisis as an chance for a reboot of the top tier and reunite old and new football on a national stage.
“There’s enough people thinking that it’s a generational opportunity to reset things for the good of the game, rather than the good of different groups or states or whatever…” said Fraser.
“Whatever your agenda has been, I think it’s time we think about what can we all do to have football come out of this at the other end?
“We're fortunate the work that's been done in preparation of the Second Division.
“I think existing clubs that put forward their intention to play in a second division could potentially become a new first division so that at least we have some content.”
But he also sees a chance to overhaul the way the sport is broadcast too, with the need to get away from relying on a single TV company for income.
“The broadcast model would need to change dramatically,” he said. “The existing NPLs have got streaming of every game virtually in every state now.
“Along with that, there's a fully automated graphics package that allows that streaming to be monetised.
“The new A-League, or whatever you want to call it, could run that same platform with a much lower cost of production.
“There are some opportunities in that transition that’s happening in streaming and broadcasting that would reduce the cost of delivering that product…whatever that product is.
“I think that’s a really exciting prospect in terms of the amount of active people who would potentially watch that if it was the highest level of content we had in the game.
"If you brought back some tribalism into the game, could you get 100,000 from the two million participants?
“If you could get 100,000 subscribers at $20 a month to watch your content - that could be top tier, women’s, reserves under 20s, everything - that’s $25m or so a year.
“You may have to initially give it away for free to get it moving, but ultimately there’s an ad platform there.
“Somehow you’ve got to get access to the two million who like football in this country., and clearly there’s going to be a lot of passionate people in whatever the new league is if it does transition.
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“If the A-League clubs say thanks very much it’s been a great journey – I hope that doesn't happen but if it does – there’s a lot of teams which would step up and still give us content, and the players will still want to play at whatever level.
“I think there is an appetite for good content and if that content came on, I think it could be a reasonably good income stream.
“But you would have to cut the cloth different ways. I read the federations across the country have about $60m in costs…
“If you save $30m there and had a different model that was a bit more streamlined… I’m not sure you need 10 CEOs, 10 media guys, 10 of everything.”
He added: “It does not make sense for the current working environment. I think that’s where we’re at now.
“Hopefully, there's enough nous and fortitude and courage to actually make some of those changes just to reset the game.
“This is a one off opportunity to reset.”
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